Coincidences as a new argument for God or a simulation?
October 31, 2024 - Reading time: 8 minutes
The key question of our lives is the question of the existence of God (or gods, in the case of polytheism). This question can be framed more generally: Are we merely complex, self-operating mechanisms created by random forces, atoms and molecules that are entirely indifferent to human beings?
There is considerable evidence suggesting that we are more than just robots with computational capabilities and that the Universe is not merely a materialistic "thing" created by a quantum fluctuation during the Big Bang, which happened to remain stable long enough to support self-organizing molecules and subsequent evolutionary processes.
A wide range of evidence supporting the God hypothesis. It can be grouped into philosophical arguments (such as the moral argument), scientific arguments (including the cosmological and fine-tuning arguments), the concept of irreducible complexity, religious arguments, and near-death experience accounts. Some may find these arguments convincing, while others might prefer more concrete, empirical evidence.
What is certain, however, is that few things persuade people more effectively than a numerical estimate. For example, an argument could be presented like this: "The probability that this Universe and biological life arose from random, indifferent processes involving matter and energy is 0.0001% (or some similarly small number)."
Such statements can, in principle, be constructed using statistical reasoning. Surprisingly, this line of thought arises from the analysis of coincidences or events without any apparent causal connection. In modern research, coincidences lacking causal connections are referred to as synchronicities - a concept introduced by the psychologist Carl Jung in the late 1920s. Jung further developed the idea in collaboration with physicist and Nobel laureate Wolfgang Pauli.
People often argue that coincidences in human lives are not unusual. They attribute this to the fact that billions of people exist, and inevitably, something unexpected will happen to some of them. For example, there is always a small chance that a child's birthday will coincide with that of a parent. Such occurrences can be explained by the sheer number of people living on the planet, or statistically speaking, by the vast number of possibilities.
To present a convincing argument that certain coincidences are meaningful-possibly the result of some hidden pattern or course beyond our understanding-one needs a method to account for the problem posed by a large number of possibilities.
Such a method does exist in respect of historic synchronicities. It was proposed in the book The Designed World of Information: Unveiling the Incredible Realm Beyond (2024, IngramSpark) by Dr. S. V. Chekanov. The arguments demonstrating that there are coincidences worthy of attention are formulated as follows:
Consider a limited number of people you are familiar with. They should be known not because of coincidences, but for other reasons. Preferably, these individuals should have lived in different centuries to eliminate the possibility of direct communication or influence between them.
Focus only on people who are meaningfully connected. For example, ensure that one person was professionally influenced by the other. A good example is the connection between John F. Kennedy and Abraham Lincoln, who are known and linked through their political activities, with Kennedy drawing inspiration from Lincoln.
Limit your analysis to significant or life-changing events, such as their birth and death dates, or the deaths of their children and spouses.
By following this approach, you will realize that you are working with a relatively limited sample of statistical possibilities, i.e. you have narrowed the range of potential events available for estimating the probability of unrelated coincidences. As a result, any unusual coincidence should be considered noteworthy, suggesting that something beyond mere chance may be at play.
This line of reasoning goes well beyond the work of Carl Jung and Wolfgang Pauli, who often relied on anecdotal cases of coincidences where estimating the range of random possibilities was difficult. In contrast, the calculations presented in the book "The Designed World of Information" are far more sophisticated. They involve numerical simulations and account for all factors that could increase the likelihood of coincidences. However, the core principle remains the same: to reduce the pool of individuals experiencing coincidences and focus on 10-20 of the most significant, life-changing events.
The conclusion of this book is quite remarkable: it suggests that the coincidences in the lives of historically significant individuals cannot be attributed to pure chance. There is a discernible pattern, often expressed through numerical relationships, that can only be explained by the presence of an underlying unknown cause. The probability of such coincidences occurring randomly is typically estimated at 0.1% to 0.01% for each case examined in the book. However, when multiple cases are considered together, these probabilities must be multiplied, resulting in astonishingly small odds that random processes alone could account for these patterns among well-known individuals.
This indicates that the Universe is not merely a random collection of atoms linked by fields and complex molecules. Another notable aspect of this argument is its relevance to human experiences, rather than to physical processes or biological evolution - commonly invoked in arguments for the existence of God. If there is a hidden pattern influencing human lives, it points to the presence of an intelligent force that is actively engaged with people and their destinies.
The statistical argument based on historical synchronicities is referred to in this new book by Dr. S. V. Chekanov as the "Designed World" argument. The primary motivation behind this name is as follows: If we observe statistically significant patterns or regularities in the lives of historical figures - perceived as coincidences with extremely low probabilities of occurring by chance - this suggests the presence of a hidden design by an intelligent agent.
This design must be timeless, as these coincidences reflect predefined scenarios. One compelling explanation for these coincidences is the continuous redefinition of the past by this intelligent agent, unconstrained by the arrow of time. This concept, known as retrocausality, provides a framework to explain certain quantum mechanical phenomena. If consciousness is indeed connected to quantum processes, then the observation of retrocausality may be possible.
Does the "Designed World" argument prove the existence of God? Possibly. What it demonstrates is the presence of a hidden course, one that operates in human terms and employs the decimal number system - commonly used by humans due to their biological characteristics. This course is not indifferent to human lives, which already represents a significant departure from the materialistic worldview. If our lives follow an initial pattern that influences our fates, which we must shape through the actions of our decisions, then there must be some underlying purpose.
This method also provides numerical estimates for the likelihood that this world is merely a collection of atomic matter governed by random forces, indifferent to complex lives. These probabilities are extremely low, presenting a compelling case for the God hypothesis, particularly for those who are more persuaded by numerical reasoning than by abstract philosophical arguments for the existence of God.
However, a word of caution is warranted: while this new argument may support the God hypothesis, it could also align with other possibilities. What it indicates is that there is something operating beneath the surface of our reality. This entity influences our world, follows a logical structure, employs human concepts, is timeless, and shows concern for people and historical events. As such, it also opens the door to the simulation hypothesis. Although the book acknowledges the simulation hypothesis as a possibility, it argues that it is unlikely. If it is indeed a simulation, it is not one analogous to the digital systems we typically associate with computers. Instead, it must operate through a symbolic language. It is conceivable that the entire dynamic world of atoms, molecules, and fields emerges from an informational realm - akin to Plato's world of ideas-existing independently in its own right.
By T.Smalsar (MD, an editor of ErmisLearn.org)